A Big Picture of the Failures of Tinubu
“The good news is that Nigerians are not going to wait until after their mandate has been stolen before they react, not even with somebody like Tinubu, for once beaten, twice shy. If Nigerians could unseat military leaders and ousted their autocratic and draconian regimes, without the use of guns, taking out Tinubu, no matter the conspiracy and gang ups, is a cheap possibility”.
Originally, as a foundation, the principles of democracy are a derivation from the principles of the social contract which is a philosophical idea propounded by Rousseau and Lock. This has it that individuals agree to form a society and give up some freedom in exchange for protection and the common good. In a democracy, this means that people consent to be governed by laws in which they have a saying often by representation, and with structures such as a constitution, rule of law, branches of government; Executive, Legislature, and Judiciary, and where these work well and accordingly, the end results typically are political stability, protection of rights, equality under the law and active participation. In short, the social contract in a democracy, is that shared agreement that makes the collective self-governance possible.
Unfortunately, the reality that most African countries that pretend to be in democracy are confronted with in terms of sufferings with poverty and insecurity at their peak, makes democracy unattractive and alienating. Rather than allow for active representation, participation and accountability, it has created a gap between the elected representatives, if there is anything to be so called, and the electorates. However, the key components of democracy are free and fair elections, the rule of law, protection of civil liberties like freedom of speech, political parallelism, and of course, the separation of powers. The separation of powers is crucial because it prevents any of such a branch like the Executive, Legislature or the Judiciary from becoming too dominant, it creates checks and balances and ensuring accountability and fairness. With the situation in Nigeria being a complete opposite of what the ideal situation would have been had the system not broken down, with both the Legislature and the Judiciary in the pocket of the Executive and the ruling APC government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and leading to the concentration of powers in the Executive, what obtains is authoritarianism and the lack of accountability. To Nigerians, this means reduced civil liberties, economic inequalities, as well as insecurity, unrest and instability. There are no better times than now, for Nigerians to rise up against the troublers of Nigeria in the All Progressive Congress Party (APC) and the only President in the history of Nigeria, whose personal and professional identity remains unclear. The only President who also allegedly forged his diplomas and even the NYSC certificate. That indeed is the proud husband of a Pastor wife of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, (RCCG). These are shameless leaders without character or integrity, who should be shown the way out. Should Tinubu be the only Yoruba leader and candidate available to represent the region for the position of president, and with all his baggage, I would rather forbear or forfeit the slot in the name of patriotism and integrity. Who also is taking the newly appointed chairman of the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC), Professors Joash Amupitan seriously? Not sacking him by his appointor, Bola Tinubu is a ground for mistrusting the electoral umpire, especially with the discovery made in relation to his participation in partisan politics and his alignment with the ruling party before his appointment. The allegation which he denied, and an action which further complicates and compounds his problems.
Several African leaders have undermined democracy with serious consequences. For example, Yowari Museveni of Uganda, overtime, made constitutional changes in Uganda. He removed the presidential age limit which allowed him to run for more terms, and he successfully stayed in office for decades. Similarly, Blaise Compaore in Burkina Faso also tried to extend his rule by amending their constitution, which ultimately sparked big protest that led to his ouster in 2014. Paul Biya has been in power since 1982 and he is one of the longest serving leaders in Africa, being in power for more than 40 years. He has been criticized for manipulating electoral laws to stay in office and leaving the country with weakened institutions and suppressed opposition.
Traveling through the memory lane, recall that the elections that ushered in Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2023, was marred by wide fraud allegations, with many calling it the most fraudulent elections in the history of the country, bringing it under international criticism and leading to the erosion of public trust. Note also that irregularities in voter’s registration and incessant voter’s intimidation, help both the local and international observers to reject the outcomes. For instance, in Lagos, many registered voters found their names missing, especially in the opposition strongholds. In Ikorodu, ballot boxes were reported stolen and counting of votes continued pass midnight without proper oversight. The local watchdogs and international observers like EU monitors, played it out how the lack of transparency and voters suppression tainted the outcome, leaving a deep distrust in the process. The violence in the elections was really pronounced. There were reports of clashes between political groups that tragically had some voters and bystanders dead. This coupled with the low turnout, President Tinubu entered office with historically minimum support, scoring just only 37 percent of the entire votes cast. This raised a serious question of legitimacy around his administration.
Since 2023 when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office amidst the illegitimacy problem of his administration, the insecurity problems rather than deescalate or abate, increased astronomically. We have seen the rise in banditry in the Northwest, increased attacks from militant groups like Boko Haram, and even in Urban areas, kidnapping spiked. However, in spite of promises of improved security, the situation deteriorated to the point that American troops had to be considered for deployment. It has really been a downward spiral; insecurity has worsened steadily overtime. Over the two years, since Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office, at least 10,217 Nigerians were killed by armed groups. In one report, 4654 deaths and 3,141 abductions were reported in violent conflicts, including banditry, terrorism and communal violence. The Nigerian government under Tinubu took a major step to address rising terrorism and banditry in 2025 by declaring a National Security emergency, added 20,000 police officers, and ramped up military operations in high risk areas. However, despite these efforts, violence continues to grow, with overstretched forces, intelligence gaps, and unresolved governance issues. Remember that, that the security of lives of the citizens and their welfare shall be the primary responsibility of any government, and that, no student who failed his major courses is allowed to be promoted to the next class or level in education.
Economically, the situation is dire. As of March 2026, inflation was about 15.4 percent and food inflation was about 14.3 percent, keeping living cost high. The United Nations World Food program warned that by late 2025, about 35 million Nigerians were facing severe hunger especially in conflict affected areas like Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe. Despite some economic growth, rising food prices and shrinking aid have left millions still struggling with hunger. Moreover, between 2023 and 2025, Nigeria’s total public debt surged from about 144.7 trillion Naira at the end of 2023 to 159.3 trillion Naira by the end of 2025. Domestic debt grew the fastest, rising 67 percent over that period, while the debt to GDP ratio stayed around 52 to 53 percent. Economists were raising concerns about the rapid pace of borrowing, especially if more of that debt is owed domestically, because it puts a huge strain on the economy. The government’s ability to service these debts is becoming a real concern, especially with the stagnant economic growth and persistent inflation. This indeed is a pressing issue.
Furthermore, after Nigeria removed the fuel subsidy in May 2023, it was expected to free up about 7.5 billion dollars annually. However, despite that potential windfall, public debt still soared, rising from about 87 trillion Naira in 2023 to over 150 trillion Naira by late 2025. In May 2025, the President even requested an additional 21.5 billion dollars in external borrowing. In short, fuel subsidy removal opened the fiscal space, but the savings haven’t yet been used effectively, and the government keeps borrowing due to rising cost and heavy debt service. In April 2026, Nigeria announced the plan to raise 700 billion Naira through domestic bonds with auction scheduled for April 2027. They also revised their total borrowing plan for 2026 upward to 2.20 trillion Naira, about 18 billion dollars. They also requested parliamentary approval for 559 million dollars being a syndicated loan from a German bank, supposedly for the construction of the Sokoto-Badagry super expressway. A project that Tinubu’s administration cannot even begin before it is ousted in 2027. In conclusion, despite the fuel subsidy removal on some initial expectations, the economy is really struggling, high inflation, rising debt and persistent hunger, all paint a really bleak picture. Remember the protest against hunger and bad governance of August 1 to 10 in 2024, where the security agencies of police, Army and the DSS used tear gas, life ammunition and mass arrest to quell or suppress the protest and with 26 fatalities according to Amnesty International. Minors were arrested and charged with terrorism and treason. They were kept in prison and malnourished. They got released after several weeks due to public outcry.
Under President Tinubu’s administration, the political space for the opposition has been narrowing. Instead of outright ban, the government has been using a more subtle tactics, coopting politicians, sowing internal divisions and applying legal pressure. There have been tighter media regulations and in one case a state of emergency was declared in Rivers State. While democratic structures remain, analysts warn that institutional safeguards are weakening. The implications of turning Nigeria into a one-party state will be dire both in the short and the long terms. A single party state can suppress political opposition which might bring short term stability as institutions are weakened or face a lot of fragmentation, but the down side tend to be really severe. You lose political pluralism which is crucial for accountability, and you risk stifling civil liberties, press freedom and even economic innovations, since diverse political voices often spark debate and new ideas. One party state can face backlash when too oppressive as the tendencies are there. Overall, the long-term implications can be very destabilizing. The same is the case of the mass defections from the opposition to the ruling party, especially by the state governors who were elected to offices on the platform of other political parties. This kind of consolidation raises a serious concern about the democratic process. Voters in those concerned States might feel completely disenfranchised because the people they chose are no longer representing them independently, and with intimidation or threat, you get a fear-based politics. So not only are there no accountability, but also a chilling effect on any dissent. In the long run, that erodes trust in institutions and could lead to unrest and even the breakdown of governance when people cannot just see ways forward. Therefore, planning to rig the 2027 elections by anybody of party, is not different from digging one’s grave and an ill wind that blows no one any good.
However, in Nigeria, Mike Ogini, a former INEC commissioner in Akwa Ibom, criticized the 2026 Electoral Act, calling it the worst in Nigeria’s history. He says it embedded a tragedy and warns that the laws could undermine Nigerians’ ability to choose their leaders and urged a reform before the 2027 elections. He also emphasized that INEC, the Judiciary, and security agencies, all need strengthening. The warning coming from a former INEC commissioner who has a deep insight and perspective in how election run, so, when he calls something a tragedy, or worst ever, it carries weight, and signals that the flaws he sees can seriously undermine public trust in the fairness of the electoral process.
This indeed is a defining moment for Nigerians, and how we define it goes a long way in determining the history we get for the country. Under the watch of Bola Tinubu and the ruling party APC, the country has degenerated into what makes it fit in for description as the saddest episode in the history of Nigeria. Remember this lesson, “History does not teach fatalism. There are moments when the will of a handful of free men breaks through determinism and opens up new roads. People get the history they deserve”-Charles De Gaulle
Now that it is extremely difficult if not impossible for Tinubu to shift his fortunes and political future, due to factors such as economic stagnation, rising debts, escalating insecurity and shrinking political freedom, before the 2027 elections, any attempts to want to rig the elections comes with severe consequences. He will certainly spark up public distrust and unrest; international observers and institutions will step in possibly with sanctions or diplomatic isolations. Domestically, he would feel a broader erosion of democratic norms with events that potentially could lead to anarchy. Such an attempt would be destabilizing and risky all around. The good news is that Nigerians are not going to wait until after their mandate has been stolen before they react, not even with somebody like Tinubu, for once beaten, twice shy. If Nigerians could unseat military leaders and ousted their autocratic and draconian regimes, without the use of guns, taking out Tinubu, no matter the conspiracy and gang ups, is a cheap possibility. All we need is to sustain the momentum by speaking to at least one person per day on what a new Nigeria means and how it looks but without Tinubu in the bigger picture of it.
Together we can rewrite the history of Nigeria.
God bless Nigeria.
By Samuel Tunji Adeyanju
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